Ukraine GDP growth will slow down to 4% in 2012 - Fitch
According to forecasts of the international rating agency Fitch Ratings, GDP growth in Ukraine in 2012 will slow to 4%, Charles Seville, associate director in Fitch Ratings' Sovereign group, said during the 6th Fitch annual conference.
Ukraine is a highly volatile country, he said, adding, previously the debts of the government and companies were estimated at 14%, and now this figure has exceeded 30%, and the debt load makes the government less able to respond to the crisis.
According to Seville, Ukraine also has one of the high levels of bad loans. Ukraine's rating outlook was downgraded from Positive to Stable due to deteriorating external situation.
In particular, euro area's growth rate decreased to 1.6%, and further outlook is also negative. China also demonstrates slowdown of the economy, although in general China's economy is growing. Industrial production, including agriculture, showed a growth rate of 6% in Ukraine in the third quarter. GDP growth in Ukraine next year, in our opinion, will slow down, as the price of steel is falling and will continue falling next year, which will increase the risks for investors, the expert said.
As projected by Fitch, the growth of Ukraine's GDP in 2011 will be 4.7%.
The National Bank expects GDP growth in 2011 at 4.5%.